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Polling Data Poll Date Sample MoE Biden (D) Trump (R) Spread RCP Average 6/1 - 6/16 -- -- 50.6 41.1 Biden +9.5 FOX News 6/13 - 6/16 1343 RV 2.5 50 38 Biden +12 Quinnipiac 6/11 - 6/15 1332 RV 2.7 49 41 Biden +8 Economist/YouGov 6/14 - 6/16 1160 RV 3.5 50 41 Biden +9 CNBC 6/10 - 6/12 1250 LV 2.8 51 41 Biden +10 Economist/YouGov 6/7 - 6/9 1241 RV 3.4 49 41 Biden +8 CNN 6/2 - 6/5 1125 RV 3.6 55 41 Biden +14 NPR/PBS/Marist 6/2 - 6/3 958 RV 4.0 50 43 Biden +7 Emerson 6/2 - 6/3 1431 RV 2.5 53 47 Biden +6 The Hill/HarrisX 6/1 - 6/4 2827 RV 1.8 47 37 Biden +10 IBD/TIPP 5/31 - 6/3 964 RV 2.9 45 42 Biden +3 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 5/28 - 6/2 1000 RV 3.1 49 42 Biden +7 Economist/YouGov 5/31 - 6/2 1244 RV 3.2 47 40 Biden +7 CNBC 5/29 - 5/31 1457 LV 2.6 48 41 Biden +7 Monmouth 5/28 - 6/1 742 RV 3.6 52 41 Biden +11 CBS News/YouGov 5/29 - 6/1 1486 LV 2.6 47 43 Biden +4 ABC News/Wash Post 5/25 - 5/28 835 RV 4.0 53 43 Biden +10 Economist/YouGov 5/23 - 5/26 1157 RV 3.4 45 42 Biden +3 FOX News 5/17 - 5/20 1207 RV 3.0 48 40 Biden +8 Rasmussen Reports 5/18 - 5/19 1000 LV 3.0 48 43 Biden +5 Economist/YouGov 5/17 - 5/19 1235 RV 3.2 47 42 Biden +5 CNBC 5/15 - 5/17 1424 LV 2.6 48 45 Biden +3 Quinnipiac 5/14 - 5/18 1323 RV 2.7 50 39 Biden +11 The Hill/HarrisX 5/13 - 5/14 950 RV 3.2 42 41 Biden +1 Harvard-Harris 5/13 - 5/14 1854 RV 2.0 53 47 Biden +6 Economist/YouGov 5/10 - 5/12 1175 RV 3.4 47 43 Biden +4 CNN 5/7 - 5/10 1001 RV 3.7 51 46 Biden +5 Economist/YouGov 5/3 - 5/5 1209 RV 3.3 46 42 Biden +4 CNBC 5/1 - 5/3 1489 LV 2.5 47 44 Biden +3 Monmouth 4/30 - 5/4 739 RV 3.6 50 41 Biden +9 CBS News/YouGov 4/28 - 5/1 1671 LV 2.5 49 43 Biden +6 IBD/TIPP 4/26 - 4/29 948 RV 3.3 43 43 Tie Emerson 4/26 - 4/28 1200 RV 2.8 48 42 Biden +6 Economist/YouGov 4/26 - 4/28 1222 RV 3.2 47 41 Biden +6 USA Today/Suffolk 4/21 - 4/25 1000 RV 3.0 50 40 Biden +10 Economist/YouGov 4/19 - 4/21 1144 RV 3.4 48 42 Biden +6 The Hill/HarrisX 4/19 - 4/20 958 RV 3.2 42 40 Biden +2 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/13 - 4/15 900 RV 3.3 49 42 Biden +7 Harvard-Harris 4/14 - 4/16 LV -- 53 47 Biden +6 Economist/YouGov 4/12 - 4/14 1166 RV 3.4 48 43 Biden +5 Monmouth 4/3 - 4/7 743 RV 3.6 48 44 Biden +4 FOX News 4/4 - 4/7 1107 RV 3.0 42 42 Tie Economist/YouGov 4/5 - 4/7 1147 RV 3.3 48 42 Biden +6 CNBC 4/3 - 4/6 604 RV 4.0 44 39 Biden +5 CNN 4/3 - 4/6 875 RV 3.9 53 42 Biden +11 Quinnipiac 4/2 - 4/6 2077 RV 2.2 49 41 Biden +8 IBD/TIPP 3/29 - 4/1 980 RV 3.2 47 41 Biden +6 Economist/YouGov 3/29 - 3/31 1194 RV 3.2 46 42 Biden +4 Grinnell/Selzer 3/27 - 3/30 777 LV 3.5 47 43 Biden +4 Harvard-Harris 3/24 - 3/26 2410 RV 2.0 55 45 Biden +10 ABC News/Wash Post 3/22 - 3/25 845 RV 3.5 49 47 Biden +2 Economist/YouGov 3/22 - 3/24 1170 RV 3.4 46 42 Biden +4 FOX News 3/21 - 3/24 1011 RV 3.0 49 40 Biden +9 Monmouth 3/18 - 3/22 754 RV 3.6 48 45 Biden +3 Emerson 3/18 - 3/19 1100 RV 2.9 53 47 Biden +6 Economist/YouGov 3/15 - 3/17 1129 RV 3.5 48 41 Biden +7 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 3/11 - 3/13 900 RV 3.3 52 43 Biden +9 Economist/YouGov 3/8 - 3/10 1191 RV 2.9 47 43 Biden +4 CNN 3/4 - 3/7 1084 RV 3.5 53 43 Biden +10 Quinnipiac 3/5 - 3/8 1261 RV 2.8 52 41 Biden +11 Harvard-Harris 2/26 - 2/28 2592 RV -- 55 45 Biden +10 IBD/TIPP 2/20 - 2/29 839 RV 3.5 49 46 Biden +3 FOX News 2/23 - 2/26 1000 RV 3.0 49 41 Biden +8 CBS News/YouGov 2/20 - 2/22 10000 RV 1.2 47 45 Biden +2 ABC News/Wash Post 2/14 - 2/17 913 RV 4.0 52 45 Biden +7 Emerson 2/16 - 2/18 1250 RV 2.7 48 52 Trump +4 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 2/14 - 2/17 900 RV 3.3 52 44 Biden +8 NPR/PBS/Marist 2/13 - 2/16 1164 RV 3.7 50 44 Biden +6 Quinnipiac 2/5 - 2/9 1519 RV 2.5 50 43 Biden +7 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 1/26 - 1/29 1000 RV 3.1 50 44 Biden +6 IBD/TIPP 1/23 - 1/30 856 RV 3.3 49 48 Biden +1 Emerson 1/21 - 1/23 1128 RV 2.8 50 50 Tie ABC News/Wash Post 1/20 - 1/23 880 RV 4.0 50 46 Biden +4 LA Times/USC 1/15 - 1/28 4869 RV 2.0 49 40 Biden +9 FOX News 1/19 - 1/22 1005 RV 3.0 50 41 Biden +9 CNN 1/16 - 1/19 1051 RV 3.6 53 44 Biden +9 IBD/TIPP 1/3 - 1/11 846 RV 3.3 48 46 Biden +2 Emerson 12/15 - 12/17 1222 RV 2.7 52 48 Biden +4 CNN 12/12 - 12/15 888 RV 4.0 49 44 Biden +5 USA Today/Suffolk 12/10 - 12/14 1000 RV 3.0 41 44 Trump +3 IBD/TIPP 12/5 - 12/14 849 RV 3.5 50 45 Biden +5 FOX News 12/8 - 12/11 1000 RV 3.0 48 41 Biden +7 Quinnipiac 12/4 - 12/9 1553 RV 2.5 51 42 Biden +9 SurveyUSA 11/20 - 11/21 3850 RV 1.7 52 39 Biden +13 Emerson 11/17 - 11/20 1092 RV 2.9 49 51 Trump +2 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/27 - 10/30 720 RV 3.7 50 41 Biden +9 ABC News/Wash Post 10/27 - 10/30 876 RV 4.0 56 39 Biden +17 FOX News 10/27 - 10/30 1040 RV 3.0 51 39 Biden +12 IBD/TIPP 10/24 - 10/31 863 RV 3.5 53 43 Biden +10 Emerson 10/18 - 10/21 1000 RV 3.0 51 49 Biden +2 CNN 10/17 - 10/20 892 RV 4.0 53 43 Biden +10 SurveyUSA 10/15 - 10/16 3080 RV 2.1 52 41 Biden +11 FOX News 10/6 - 10/8 1003 RV 3.0 50 40 Biden +10 Quinnipiac 10/4 - 10/7 1483 RV 3.1 51 40 Biden +11 IBD/TIPP 9/26 - 10/3 863 RV 3.5 51 44 Biden +7 Rasmussen Reports 9/23 - 9/24 1000 LV 3.0 43 47 Trump +4 Emerson 9/21 - 9/23 1019 RV 3.0 50 49 Biden +1 FOX News 9/15 - 9/17 1008 RV 3.0 52 38 Biden +14 SurveyUSA 9/13 - 9/16 4520 RV 1.6 49 41 Biden +8 ABC News/Wash Post 9/2 - 9/5 877 RV 4.0 55 40 Biden +15 IBD/TIPP 8/22 - 8/30 848 RV 3.5 54 42 Biden +12 Emerson 8/24 - 8/26 1458 RV 2.5 54 46 Biden +8 Quinnipiac 8/21 - 8/26 1422 RV 4.6 54 38 Biden +16 FOX News 8/11 - 8/13 1013 RV 3.0 50 38 Biden +12 SurveyUSA 8/1 - 8/5 5459 RV 1.6 50 42 Biden +8 IBD/TIPP 7/25 - 8/1 856 RV 3.5 54 41 Biden +13 Emerson 7/27 - 7/29 1233 RV 2.7 51 49 Biden +2 FOX News 7/21 - 7/23 1004 RV 3.0 49 39 Biden +10 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 7/7 - 7/9 800 RV 3.5 51 42 Biden +9 Emerson 7/6 - 7/8 1100 RV 2.9 53 47 Biden +6 ABC News/Wash Post 6/28 - 7/1 875 RV 4.0 53 43 Biden +10 Rasmussen Reports 6/23 - 7/2 4500 LV 1.5 48 44 Biden +4 Emerson 6/21 - 6/24 1096 RV 2.9 55 45 Biden +10 FOX News 6/9 - 6/12 1001 RV 3.0 49 39 Biden +10 Quinnipiac 6/6 - 6/10 1214 RV 3.5 53 40 Biden +13 FOX News 5/11 - 5/14 1001 RV 3.0 49 38 Biden +11 Emerson 5/10 - 5/13 1006 RV 3.0 54 46 Biden +8 CNN 4/25 - 4/29 470 RV 5.5 51 45 Biden +6 The Hill/HarrisX 4/25 - 4/26 1000 RV 3.1 43 37 Biden +6 Politico/Morning Consult 4/19 - 4/21 1992 RV 2.0 42 34 Biden +8 Emerson 4/11 - 4/14 914 RV 3.2 53 47 Biden +6 PPP (D) 3/27 - 3/28 846 RV 3.4 53 40 Biden +13 Rasmussen Reports 3/17 - 3/21 5000 LV 1.5 49 44 Biden +5 FOX News 3/17 - 3/20 1002 RV 3.0 47 40 Biden +7 Emerson 3/17 - 3/18 1153 RV 2.8 55 45 Biden +10 Emerson 2/14 - 2/16 1000 RV 3.3 55 45 Biden +10 PPP (D) 1/19 - 1/21 760 RV 3.6 53 41 Biden +12 PPP (D) 6/8 - 6/10 679 RV 3.8 53 39 Biden +14 PPP (D) 3/23 - 3/25 846 RV 3.4 56 39 Biden +17 PPP (D) 2/9 - 2/11 687 RV 3.7 51 42 Biden +9 CNN 1/14 - 1/18 918 RV 3.8 57 40 Biden +17 PPP (D) 12/11 - 12/12 862 RV 3.3 54 40 Biden +14 PPP (D) 10/27 - 10/29 572 RV 4.1 56 38 Biden +18 Emerson 10/12 - 10/14 820 RV 3.4 51 42 Biden +9 PPP (D) 9/22 - 9/25 865 RV 3.3 53 40 Biden +13 PPP (D) 8/18 - 8/21 887 RV 3.3 51 39 Biden +12 PPP (D) 7/14 - 7/17 836 RV 3.4 54 39 Biden +15 PPP (D) 6/9 - 6/11 811 RV 3.4 54 41 Biden +13 PPP (D) 5/12 - 5/14 692 RV 3.7 54 40 Biden +14 PPP (D) 4/17 - 4/18 648 RV 3.9 54 40 Biden +14 PPP (D) 3/27 - 3/28 677 RV 3.8 54 40 Biden +14 realclearpolitics.com
  3. What will happen next? Trump’s election in 2016 brought out women across the country to protest with massive women’s marches not seen before in our country. That agitation and energy was transformed into political action- the result was the 2018 election that flipped the House. The next election needs to flip the Senate and regain the presidency. Biden has responded to this moment in our history by moving left of center and looking to FDR as a role model for policies he will support and implement. Biden has been meeting with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and others. These meetings have resulted in policy positions that are more left of center than any presidential hopeful in the history of our country. Biden has also been speaking out and his words are the words of the leader we need. If Biden has the energy of younger Americans behind him, he will win in November. I am hopeful now in a way I have not been before that not only is the younger generation motivated, but multi-generational activism has been ignited. Protesters must maintain peaceful protests despite many right wing groups and criminal elements that are coordinating damage and looting. Protesters cannot play into Trump’s hands by allowing violence to mar their message and fuel his. This organic energy is our country’s best hope to defeat Donald Trump in November. Trump and the GOP must lose and lose REALLY BIG. There can be no question about who wins the next election because Trump will take advantage of any uncertainty to claim the election was stolen from him. He will claim that anyhow, but if it is a massive loss in the Electoral College, he will not succeed in holding onto power because the military will follow the constitution. The 20th Amendment of the Constitution says that on January 20th at noon, the president and VP who have lost the election are no longer in power. At noon on January 20th the president and VP become regular citizens. The newly elected president and vice president assume the power of all our government agencies at that moment, including the power to command the military. If Trump fails to leave the White House, he could be ordered to leave the White House and expelled as a trespasser by the police. General Mattis understands that danger we face as a country and he has spoken out against Trump at long last. Here are excerpts from General Mattis’ remarkable statement: “I have watched this week’s unfolding events, angry and appalled. The words ‘Equal Justice Under Law’ are carved in the pediment of the United States Supreme Court. This is precisely what protesters are rightly demanding. It is a wholesome and unifying demand—one that all of us should be able to get behind. We must not be distracted by a small number of lawbreakers. The protests are defined by tens of thousands of people of conscience who are insisting that we live up to our values—our values as people and our values as a nation.” He goes on, “We must reject and hold accountable those in office who would make a mockery of our Constitution.” “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.” Mattis goes on to contrast the American ethos of unity with Nazi ideology. “Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that ‘The Nazi slogan for destroying us … was “Divide and Conquer.” Our American answer is “In Union there is Strength.”’ We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.” (from The Atlantic) markinreport.com
  4. Why There is Hope At the time I worked as a prosecutor I did not know what could be done to change the culture of systemic racial injustice. But since then I have learned about restorative justice, community policing and many other ideas that work to shift the culture of policing. I no longer think the problem is hopeless. When the Obama administration left office, they left the Trump administration a valuable playbook based on years of research about how to implement 21st century policing. The guidebook is chock full of good ideas and suggestions. The Trump administration has totally ignored that manual just as they ignored the handbook on what to do in case of a pandemic. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/opinion/police-reform-obama-task-force.html As Barack Obama said this past Wednesday, we can get out that 21st Century Policing Manual and get busy right now implementing the ideas in there. Mayors and lawmakers could take action immediately with (to name just a few ideas) de-escalation training for police, community policing, and re-thinking bail (which all too often keeps poor defendants in jail pending trial condemning them to continued poverty including loss of jobs and a record that keeps them from getting future work). Given the rising tide of outrage and energy we are seeing in America, I have never had as much hope as I do today that much can be done to fix our 400 year old problem of systemic unfairness to people of color. But…there is a catch. Trump and his enablers have to be voted out and the military cannot enable Trump to stay in office if he loses the election. How Trump is Using This Moment to Test the Military Trump has trampled on the Constitution and many long established norms before in his presidency, and has been rewarded. He has not only evaded expulsion from office, but grown in power and capacity to get people to carry out his orders even when they are suspect or illegal. Trump asserts control over as much of government as he can and eliminates anyone who will not play along. Now, I think, Trump is testing the military to bend this institution to his will and see if he can get it to help him achieve his ultimate goal of staying in power even if he loses the election. Trump’s use of brute force to clear his path to get a photo op in front of St. John’s Church where he held up a bible as if it was a Trump steak, that unnecessary force against peaceful Americans exercising their first amendment rights in the nation’s capitol, was, I think, a dry run and a test of loyalty for the military. He got General Milley and Mark Esper to accompany him in that walk across Lafayette Park. Gen. Milley ducked out before the photo was taken. But Esper got caught in that shameful photograph that will be discussed by historians in years to come, assuming we can hold onto our democracy. That use of force against protesters to get a photo op was the last straw for many retired military leaders, causing them to finally speak up: General Mattis, Admiral Mike Mullen, John Kelly, (former Chief of Staff), General Martin Dempsey, General Douglas Lute, General John Allen, General Anthony Thomas, Admiral Stavridis, Admiral McRaven. The fact that so many are speaking up and pushing back on Trump is a hopeful development. There are also many discussions going on behind the scenes right now in the military and at the Pentagon about what should happen if and when Trump gives them an unconstitutional order. Mark Esper and Trump are the only two people who have the power to issue orders to the US Armed Forces. It is important that yesterday Esper pulled armed forces out of Washington, D.C. against Trump’s wishes, asserting his will over Trump’s and responding to the request of the DC mayor. The Tipping Point The systemic change we need can happen only if the Trump administration is expelled and the GOP-led Senate flips blue. Trump, Barr and his enablers are using these mainly peaceful protest marches to achieve their own political ends, trying to scare Americans and use that fear to get Trump re-elected as a law and order president, wanting protests to be violent so that they can build a case to derail the election. Winning is their only goal. Democracy could be the casualty. I hope that Americans are onto Trump. Trump wants to be seen as a Nixonian law and order president protecting white America from scary people of color. But this is a different era. In 1968 Nixon won election as a law and order president, but he was not an incumbent. Trump cannot pretend that he is an outsider when it come to the mess he has created in 3 1/2 years of his presidency. More important, white Americans of all ages are marching alongside black Americans in the streets of our cities. That did not happen in 1968. That is why I have hope. markinreport.com
  5. 74% of Americans believe the death of George Floyd is a sign of a broader problem. Americans have become more aware of the harsh and unfair treatment of people of color at the hands of the police. The indefensible murder of George Floyd was a flash point that exposed police brutality in the most clear and shocking way. White Americans now understand that police are more likely to use harsh tactics with black people and that Ferguson and the death of Eric Garner were not isolated incidents. This growing condemnation of harsh policing, especially when it comes to black Americans, is partly the result of more people of all backgrounds and skin colors collaborating with each other at work, in casual social situations, in the military, in colleges and universities. We also have a celebrity culture that reveres athletes, actors, and actresses of all backgrounds and skin color. It matters that we had a black president who ran the country extremely well, especially in contrast to the abysmal job Donald Trump is doing. Our global world has brought us closer together, interacting with multicultural colleagues with a wide variety of skin tones. And, equally important, cell phone video content taken at the time of any incident supplies evidence to the world at large making it impossible to cover up or hide what really happened as was frequently done in the past. Anyone who has had multicultural interactions and experiences in life understands that skin color is just that- skin color. It should have nothing whatsoever to do with how you are treated as a human being. But in this country for far too long, it has been dangerous to be black while driving, black while jogging, black while bird watching, black when encountering police in any context. This baked in prejudice has been our shameful legacy for 400 years. It was totally unacceptable before but now we are at a tipping point. The difference is that white Americans and Americans of all ages have joined Americans of color across this country to rise up and get into the streets for peaceful protests against police brutality. This weekend protests are going on even in small cities across America. When our friends and family are treated unfairly by people in authority, it’s personal, no longer abstract. Our Broken Policing System As a prosecutor in state court in Philadelphia in the 1970’s and in Chicago in the 1980’s I witnessed a broken judicial system that had an authoritarian mindset. As a former social worker turned prosecutor (an unusual background for a prosecutor) I had a different sensibility compared to many other prosecutors. I had come from a world of social service workers who cared about nurturing, supporting, being empathetic and helping many of the very same people that the criminal justice system vilified, put down and disrespected. I quickly learned that many policemen I prepped as witnesses for preliminary hearings and trials had become very cynical and cruel over the years after seeing so much on the streets that they told me had damaged their faith in human beings. Many of the police I worked with had become tough and mean. Some of them came to the job of policing with a chip on their shoulders, probably from being mistreated themselves by abusive parents. All too often police were certain that a defendant of color should be punished even they were not sure they had arrested the right offender. I would hear rationalizations from the police: “Look, even if this mope didn’t do it this time, he probably did a lot of bad stuff before.” Extensive rap sheets for petty crimes added to that belief that this person deserved to be punished whether or not he committed THIS crime. It was obvious the system was broken. Many defense attorneys had developed cozy relationships with the judges they appeared before. At first, I was shocked that state court judges would hand out lighter sentences based on whether a private defense attorney represented the defendant. Time and again private counsel (as opposed to public defenders) were able to get their clients lighter sentences or probation given the same evidence. It had to be clear to anyone working in the system that it was rigged to keep already disadvantaged defendants at a greater disadvantage in life. It was demoralizing to be part of a system that was so clearly unfair and had so few alternatives to prison as a solution. Almost everyone participating in the justice system was damaged by it from the victims of the crime (usually other members of the community where the defendant lived), to the defendants, to the police, the courtroom personnel, to the irritable, ornery judges. Everyone was caught up in a hopeless, dysfunctional morass that was into demeaning, further damaging and punishing people instead of helping them to change their lives for the better, treating them with fairness and investing in their potential for a future that would be far better not only for the defendant but for the community at large. I thought then and still think that the police should be trained as social workers. Our authoritarian approach to policing promotes brutality. Trump has an authoritarian mindset. As long as he is in power, authoritarian policing will continue. markinreport.com
  6. Biden has embraced the most left leaning policies in the history of our country. Read this Vox article: Joe Biden has a plan for that Not a joke, folks: He’s running on a transformative policy agenda. https://www.vox.com/2020/5/26/21257648/joe-biden-climate-economy-tax-plans If Biden were president right now we would have a federal plan in place to manage the pandemic using testing and tracing as they have done in places like New Zealand where they have NO cases of Covid anymore. That would allow businesses to open up without resulting in the deaths of more Americans. Biden would lead with a federal plan that would help people to feel safe to reemerge from lock-down. That’s the way to re-open businesses without infecting more Americans. Biden wants to fix the economy to be fair and provide a way forward for all Americans. Biden will address police brutality and unequal justice for black Americans. Biden will bring back compassion and empathy. He will address climate change in the most forward thinking way we have ever seen, return to the Paris Climate Accord, and move us away from fossil fuels. He will re-instate the rule of law, norms and will keep our country from falling off the precipice into autocracy. He will reconnect us with our allies and global alliances. He will bring in the most diverse, capable group of people we have ever seen in government and he will empower them to rebuild and run the agencies Trump and the GOP have hollowed out. And if we flip the Senate as well, we will see the end of Mitch McConnell’s right-wing appointments to the federal judiciary and Supreme Court, and we will finally have an end to endless gridlock in DC. Wouldn’t it be nice to have capable, effective government for a change? The way to get there is to vote blue up and down the ballot and do everything humanly possible to flip the Senate and replace McConnell with Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin or some other Democrat as Senate leader. Imagine what that would do to help our country get back on track! Wouldn’t it be nice if we could get back to our lives and stop worrying about what crazy, idiotic thing Trump is going to do next? his next awful tweet? or who he will pick a fight with next? or which allies he is going to insult? or which autocratic leaders he is going to kiss up to? which corrupt act he will engage in? which criminal he is going to pardon to keep himself from getting exposed? how much taxpayer money he will squander on his trips to go golfing? or what he and Putin have up their sleeves to damage America? And wouldn’t it be nice if we knew we had a democracy again and if someone wins a presidential election we wouldn’t have to worry if the defeated president will agree to actually leave office on January 20th at noon according to the express wording of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution? The way to get to that state of affairs is to vote in huge numbers, massive numbers, to vote out both Trump and the GOP so that Trump has no basis for claiming he didn’t lose. These swing states will be absolutely crucial: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina. Trump needs to lose big in those states for Biden to get a decisive Electoral College win. Are you ready for this nightmare to end? Get active! The election is coming up faster than you think. You can help. Here’s what works: calls to voters, postcards to voters, supporting Senate candidates and supporting Joe Biden as well as his super PACs. One really terrific group is American Bridge PAC. They are running convincing ads in battleground states on local TV telling the stories of former Trump supporters who have turned against him who explain why they changed their minds about Trump and would not vote for him now. Here is the link to that PAC if you want to help to make a real difference: https://americanbridgepac.org/ Other groups putting together effective ads are: The Lincoln Project, Republican Voters Against Trump, and Meidas Touch. All of them are doing compelling ads and all could use our support. markinreport.com
  7. The contrast between Joe Biden and Donald Trump could not be more stark. Trump has most recently engaged in a petty grievance battle with Twitter because Twitter had fact checked him about the outrageous lies he continues to push that mail in voting is somehow going to lead to rampant vote fraud. There is no evidence for that and Twitter slammed Trump with a fact check. So, Trump went ballistic. Predictable. Then Trump signed an executive order to try to punish social media companies that limit his so-called “free speech”, meaning: his fake news tweets. While Trump was engaged in his hissy fit, our country was facing the grim milestone of 100,000 deaths from coronavirus. Other countries are doing far better at managing this crisis than we are. We are losing more Americans to this virus because Trump is incapable of leading, incapable of creating a federal system to test and isolate, unable to manage this problem to protect Americans, failing to even mark the day with any form of compassion. Predictable. Trump’s failure of compassion and lack of empathy was on full display even when made a bizarre statement about rebounding job numbers in June in the same breath as George Floyd: “Hopefully, George is looking down right now and saying this is a great thing that’s happening for our country,” Mr. Trump said. “This is a great day for him, it’s a great day for everybody. This is a great day for everybody. This is a great, great day in terms of equality.” WTF?! This is our president. He is a failed human being. He has earned himself the name “bunker boy” which was trending on Twitter after he was too terrified of some protesters who had wandered onto land close to the White House. Trump was rushed down to the bunker in the basement. But after that Trump has encased the White House behind additional barriers creating a border wall for himself out of fear. If Biden were in the White House he would be meeting with the protesters and listening to them- which he has been doing already. The contrast between Joe Biden and Donald Trump has never been more clear. Joe Biden has lived through many losses. His first wife and their daughter died in a car accident. Then his beloved son, Beau, died from cancer. Biden understands grief and he understands how to help people who are grieving. Biden released a video clip in which he reminded us how a real president would speak and act. “To all of you hurting so badly, I’m so sorry for your loss” and “This nation grieves with you.” In the video, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee directly addresses those who have lost relatives and friends. Evoking the personal tragedies he’s faced in his own life, Biden said, “I think I know what you’re feeling.” “You feel like you’re being sucked into a black hole in the middle of your chest,”said Biden. “It’s suffocating.” (NYT) The video is deeply moving because Biden is speaking from his heart and he is so authentic in his expression of empathy and concern about Americans that he ignites a yearning for the loss of a comforter-in-chief we have all been missing. His pain and his concern show through. Watching him speak brought tears to my eyes. Empathy has been so absent from this administration and hate has been so prevalent, that the simple comforting words uttered by Joe Biden felt like a moment of shared peace and an expression of caring for all we are in mourning for. Lost lives. Lost unity as a country. Lost democracy. Lost rule of law. Lost care for each other. Lost jobs. Lost hope for fairness for minorities and the disenfranchised. These past three years with Trump in charge have ushered in a vast desecration of what the majority of Americans believe are American values, ethics, morals, norms and decency. Whether you think Trump is responsible for all of this or that he is simply a sign of the times, you have to agree that Trump did nothing to stop this decay and that he piled on with extensive hypocrisy, disinformation and lies, and overt, rampant corruption. The contrast between Trump and Biden is going to play out through the upcoming campaign in the next few months. Trump is betting that Americans will re-elect him if they believe he can put the economy back together after a pandemic, he will tell us, was a total surprise to everyone even though it was not. Trump is not capable of actually putting anything back together again at all. Nonetheless, he will take credit for a rebounding stock market as the country recovers from a decline so steep, any sort of rise would be seen as an historic recovery. The stock market is not the full story of our economy, however. The Obama/ Biden administration brought this country out of the 2008 recession in a solid, substantial way. Trump is trying to sell Americans on the idea that a rising stock market and the return of some jobs is the same thing as economic recovery. It is not. Biden is betting that Americans are going to vote for leadership, stability, empathy, good management and a return to decency. Biden will make the election a referendum on Trump’s mismanagement of the pandemic and his abysmal reaction to the death of George Floyd and police brutality. Biden is banking on Americans having faith in his ability, not Trump’s, to get us back to economic health since he was one of the people who led the recovery after the Great Recession brought on by the GOP. And it does seems that every time the Republicans wreck the economy, the Dems get elected and they have to clean up the mess the GOP left behind. Americans should try to remember that lesson. Biden has been working with a team of advisors to put together plans for the country to get us back to economic health. Biden sees the challenge ahead as a new version of the New Deal that helped our country get back on its feet when Roosevelt was our president. For those of you progressives who are upset about the fact that Warren and Sanders have conceded, Biden has been talking with them both and has adopted many of their ideas and moved to the left in his policies. Other progressives have been talking with Biden and they seem to be finding common ground. People who continue to berate Biden for his past centrist policy positions should recognize that some people really do evolve, change and grow in their thinking. I believe Biden is doing that. Take a look at his policies at Joebiden.com. markinreport.com
  8. The Pros Biden is a man whose government experience in Washington and around the world is extensive and has helped him to create some remarkably valuable relationships. He is known and trusted by mayors and civic leaders in cities across the country, congressional lawmakers (even Republicans), and our allies around the world. Relationship building is one of his greatest strengths as a person. I have met him and his wife, Jill, in person. He is attentive to every single person he interacts with. It is not a show. When Biden speaks to people one on one, he really listens to them and is right there with each person. Caring about other people is part of the reason he is so remarkably good at relationship building. He will cross a street to ask someone who is begging for money about their story and he will try to help them (according to one of his good friends). When he is campaigning he wants to meet everyone at the burger joint and talk with them including their kids. He will bend down and talk with children, ask the kids who their favorite teachers are and what they like to do for fun. Joe really likes and cares about people. Joe has overcome stuttering in his life but he still has lingering moments when he looks down to gather his thoughts to avoid stumbling over a syllable. He has been known to send personal letters to people who write to him. One of the most compelling letters he has written was to a young man who also stutters. He expressed support, compassion and encouragement. This is who he is. Many people already know that Joe Biden has suffered losses in his life. A car accident took his first wife and daughter. He had two remaining sons and one of them, Beau, was lost to cancer. Joe Biden totally and personally understands the need for affordable health care for all Americans and, most importantly, he is deeply committed to helping Americans get that health care. If elected I believe that he will find a way to make the Affordable Care Act work for Americans. He sees himself as a person who is serving Americans and his job in government is to help Americans have better lives. Biden is a man of integrity. He was sent to Ukraine by Barack Obama to help clean up corruption there because he has a long record of being honest, fair-minded and ethical. When it comes to Hunter’s decision to be on the board of Burisma, Joe Biden would say it was not his decision as the father of an adult son to tell his son not to take that position. Joe Biden never thought that someone like Trump would someday be president and falsely allege that he or his son was corrupt when they weren’t. Hunter was also reasonably qualified to sit on that board, unlike what Trump and the right wing cable news hosts would have you believe. “(Hunter) Biden, a trained lawyer, had (already) served on the board of a U.S. company and had also formed an investment firm with fellow Yale graduates.” Numerous prosecutors in Ukraine investigated Burisma. There was no wrongdoing by Hunter Biden or Joe Biden. One of the pros of voting for Joe Biden is that he has the potential to win big in the cities, the suburbs and the Rust Belt states that are ground zero for the Dems to win this November. His authentic relationships, with firemen, union workers and other salt of the earth kinds of guys make him an ideal candidate to win big in 2020. That’s part of the reason Trump fears him as an opponent. Another reason to get Joe into the White House is that he will attract the best and the brightest talent to join his team. These capable, more seasoned people will flock back to Washington to help repair the damage from the Trump administration, many who worked in the Obama administration will be excited to come back to help out. Trump will try to call him a socialist but unlike Bernie and Warren, it will not stick with Biden. People know he isn’t. When I analyzed Joe Biden’s handwriting, what stood out was that he thinks in bursts and sometimes has breaks or blips in his train of thought. He can interrupt himself with a new thought even while speaking. (Many other people do that too, by-the-way. When people do that they can sound like they are missing a beat or scattered in their thinking.) We have seen evidence of that on the debate stage now and again. I have spoken with friends of his and people on his campaign; they agree that Joe can meander at times but they also agree that he is capable, kind and caring and has the best interests of all Americans at heart. This is just who he is. I have asked people about his low energy level. Is that true about him? What I learned is that he, like Obama, really cares about having a family life and wants to work hard all day but be home in the evenings. He is said to have a lot of energy and that Trump’s branding is inaccurate. He is not driven and obsessed as Trump is by many demons. Biden is a far more peaceful person who is comfortable with himself and has purpose and meaning in life derived from relationships and doing good for the country. Joe also tells long stories that are mostly personal stories, yes. But it’s not about how great he is or how much better he is than other people as is with the current president. He has never been rich monetarily or wanted that. Instead he sees the richness in life coming from the people he cares about and the mission of helping the world be better. His handwriting reveals that he is kind of like a Mr. Rogers: by that I mean a man with terrific values, who is honest, ethical, and has a profound sense of compassion. If you think Mr. Rogers would be a good man to have as president, a role model you would like for your children, the opposite of and certainly an antidote to Trump, vote for Joe Biden. markinreport.com
  9. The Cons Some of the people running for president are more data driven and logical (Bloomberg) more articulate (Mayor Pete), and more inspirational and commanding (Sanders), more energetic and eager (Warren). If Biden is the nominee, he will be attacked by Trump and we will have to hear about Burisma again (yada yada yada). Hunter will be unfairly called corrupt. (Yada some more.) If there is a debate Joe might have to look down to catch his thoughts or he might have trouble getting a word in edgewise. He might not have a really good smart-ass retort. His jokes might be the kind you read in the Dad Joke Book- sort of dorky. And, yes, he might say he would like to take Trump out to the back alley and give him a whooping. But honestly, wouldn’t you? He will also make gaffes, because he does. But I will take Biden’s gaffes over Trump’s 16,000 lies any day. Joe might not deliver Obama style inspirational speeches. Then again, he might surprise us. His first speech about Trump and white supremacists, when he entered the race for president, brought tears to my eyes. How about you? And think about it…does a president need to be charismatic to do a good job as president? We will have to hear about how he touched someone’s head inappropriately and gave people hugs. But after 3 years of Trump I think we could all use a hug. Joe Biden is old but so is Trump and Bernie and Bloomberg. Joe Biden may seem older, though. That is something I hear from many people. But the fact that he is old also speaks to his many years in government which is not all bad. He knows a lot. He has seen a lot. He knows many people. It is part of the reason why he could be so valuable as a president who could attract many capable people back to government to reconstruct our country after the massive damage Trump has done. markinreport.com
  10. Still other commentators wonder if Trump is promoting this drug to help friends who have a stake in companies that sell hydroxychloroquine. Fox News host Laura Ingraham as well as other Fox News personalities Carlson and Hannity. were pushing this drug big time on Fox News for awhile, but abruptly stopped a few weeks ago after it was shown to be linked to heart attacks and death in some Covid patients. You have to wonder if they had a stake in companies selling the drug. And how about Trump’s own family? Do they stand to make money from the sale of this drug? Trump has a long and storied track record of promoting himself and looking for the quick fix to make a buck. Trump steaks. Trump hotels. Trump golf courses. Trump University. It would be consistent with his usual approach to life to want to make money off of a fast cure for Covid-19. He says he has no stake in the drug. But do we believe him? Trump has been caught making over 17,000 false and misleading statements. Hmm. Not a good track record. Because Trump is such a liar, we may never know for sure if he is or is not taking hyroxycholoquine. He might be saying this to get the libs upset. Trolling the libs seems to be one of his main goals in life. But if that is his motivation he has sorely misread the libs. If and when Trump keels over dead from a heart attack because he took hydroxycholoquine, the libs will be dancing in the streets. Ding Dong the Witch is Dead. And speaking of death, Trump is losing the support of older American voters over 65, a crucial part of his voting base, who are afraid this virus could kill them and that Trump is not protecting them. Trump’s losses with this demographic correlate to his coronavirus briefings. Those briefings showcased Trump’s divisiveness, misinformation and lack of leadership. Everyone wants the economy re-opened, but other countries are doing a better job of it with massive testing, tracing and isolating to identify the sick and keep the sick away from the well. Without testing and tracing, the well have to isolate themselves from the rest of the world to stay safe. That includes older Americans at risk by reason of their age. Our government is also screwing up by re-opening without regard for the data and numbers that should be the drivers and indicators of which regions are ready to re-open and which are not. This is not sitting well with seniors who vote. Mr. Trump’s advantage with older voters has been essential to his political success; in 2016, he won voters over the age of 65 by seven percentage points, according to national exit poll data. A recent Morning Consult poll found that Mr. Trump’s approval rating on the handling of the coronavirus was lower with seniors than with any other group other than young voters. And Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee, in recent polls held a 10-point advantage over Mr. Trump among voters who are 65 and older. A poll commissioned by the campaign showed a similar double-digit gap. The falloff in support comes as Mr. Trump has grown increasingly anxious about his re-election prospects, with a series of national surveys, as well as internal polling, showing him trailing in key states. (NYT) Whether Trump himself is really taking hydroxychloroquine or only pretending to, simply by claiming that he takes it, he is encouraging his loyal base to protect themselves against Covid-19 by taking this stuff. Trump has also ordered his campaign to re-start the mega rallies he loves so much, which would pack in his followers together in large numbers, exposing them to the virus which is transmitted mainly by aerosols produced when people breathe. You know, Trump is getting mighty close to channeling cult leader, Jim Jones, who got his cult followers in Jonesville to “drink the Kool Aide”, which was laced with cyanide, and, as we all know, those cult followers are now dead. You have to wonder if Trump doesn’t care if some of his cult base have heart attacks and die from using hydroxycholoquine and others contract Covid-19 from attending his rallies. Could it be he is so desperate to win he would sacrifice any number of his followers? Is he capable of that level of betrayal? What do you think? markinreport.com
  11. On Monday, May 19, Trump told reporters that he is taking hydroxychloroquine and another supplement to ward off the coronavirus. That caused a media ruckus because this flies in the face of current science and medical advice and, given that Trump has a heart condition, it might actually kill him. According to sources in the White House, and Trump’s own statement, he started taking these pills every day after being exposed to Covid-19 by one of his military valets, a man who interacted with him daily and served him his food. Trump claims he had a conversation with the White House doctor about taking this drug as a preventative measure. The White House doctor verified they had a conversation but not whether he prescribed it for Trump. You might remember that Trump raised something similar before with Dr. Birx, asking her whether it could be a good idea to ingest Chlorox or use some form of internal radiation to eradicate the virus. Dr. Birx looked pained at the time. She knows that ingesting Chlorox could kill you, but Trump really seems dense about this and apparently he does not understand how a cleaning agent that works to eradicate a virus on your hands or on a metal surface could kill a human being who is dumb enough to ingest it. BREAKING NEWS: Just published in the medical journal, Lancet, a study of 96,000 patients on 6 continents treated with hydroxychloroquine, the drug Trump pushes as a “game changer” in the fight against Covid-19, had a 34% increased risk of death and a 137% increased risk of a serious heart arrhythmia. Patients getting the “cocktail” mix of hydroxychloroquine plus the antibiotic endorsed by Trump there was a 45% increased risk of death and a 411% increase risk of serious heart arrhythmias. (5/22/20) Trump’s announcement that he himself has been taking the drug has caused a flurry of responses. Joe Scarborough (Morning Joe) does not believe Trump is really taking hydroxychloroquine. He thinks Trump is using this bombshell as a distraction. Chris Cuomo (CNN) agrees with Morning Joe, but these are two men who are logical and do not think like Trump when it comes to fact based evidence. Neil Cavuto of Fox News was very upset by Trump’s claim and warned viewers NOT to take this medication. “It will kill you. I cannot stress this enough”. Based on a number of studies including one at the VA Hospital, in which numerous patients took the drug and died, hydroxychloroquine might in fact kill you because it increases the risk of heart attack in people with pre-existing conditions. The medication can have other serious side effects. Hydroxychloroquine may cause neuropsychiatric symptoms, “including agitation, insomnia, confusion, mania, hallucinations, paranoia, depression, catatonia, psychosis, and suicidal ideation.” If Trump is in fact taking this drug, has his internist checked Trump out for his potential to get dangerous side effects? Nancy Pelosi’s reaction to Trump’s announcement that he has been taking this drug was priceless: “I would rather not be taking something that has not been approved by the scientists especially in his age group, and in his, shall we say weight group ‘morbidly obese’ they say.” Nice shade, Nancy. Joe Biden’s reaction was an eruption of horrified exclamations: “What is he doing? What in God’s name is he doing?” “This is absolutely irresponsible.” “It’s like saying maybe if you inject Clorox into your blood it may cure you. C’mon, man!” “The words of a president matter.” Lawrence O’Donnell says he thinks that Trump was just trying to swipe at Dr. Rick Bright. Bright testified before a Senate committee that he was ousted from BARDA as the leading scientist working to develop a vaccine because he refused to green light and fast track hydrocholoquine for extensive use without adequate testing. Well established scientific protocol requires extensive double blind testing to be sure the drug does more good than harm to people with Covid-19. A study in a Veteran’s Hospital ended after a number of Covid patients died of heart attacks after taking hydroxychloroquine. Trump has brushed that off saying it was a study done by people who did not like him. What else is new- that idea about things being false because people are out to get him comes right out of Trump’s usual paranoid playbook. markinreport.com
  12. Josef hjemmedrakt west ham united football club er en engelsk fotballklubb som for tiden spiller i fa premier leagueklubben ble stiftet i sesongensiste hjemmekampen på upton park mot manchester united fc endte 3 for west ham nye fotballdrakter. Devon
  13. Rochell billige fotballdrakter på nett,draktsett fotball nye fotballdrakter,kjøpe fotballdrakteradidas manchester united keeperdrakter 2020 barnsalget av langermet fotballdrakter Micha
  14. Anne fotbollsklädersonen, snart 6 år, ska börja fotbollsträningfotbollsskor är inhandlade fotbollströja, likaså ett set med kortärmad tröja och shorts i blankt Marge
  15. Policies that support a high degree of regulatory efficiency are in place. The entrepreneurial environment is one of the most competitive, with start-up companies benefiting from great flexibility in licensing and other regulatory frameworks. The labor regulations facilitate a dynamic labor market. New Zealand has a vibrant agriculture sector with the lowest subsidies of any OECD country. Business Freedom : 91.0 Labor Freedom : 86.7 Monetary Freedom : 87.5 The combined value of exports and imports is equal to 51.3 percent of GDP. The average applied tariff rate is 1.3 percent. As of June 30, 2018, according to the WTO, New Zealand had 242 nontariff measures in force. Overall, openness to global trade and investment is firmly institutionalized. Banking is well established and competitive. Trade Freedom : 92.4 Investment Freedom : 80.0 Financial Freedom : 80.0 heritage.org
  16. Private property rights are strongly protected, and New Zealand ranks among the world’s top countries for contract security. The judicial system is independent and functions well. New Zealand ranked first out of 180 countries surveyed in Transparency International’s 2017 Corruption Perceptions Index. The country is renowned for its efforts to ensure a transparent, competitive, and corruption-free government procurement system. Property Rights : 95.0 Government Integrity : 96.7 Judicial Effectiveness : 83.5 The top income tax rate is 33 percent, and the top corporate tax rate is 28 percent. Other taxes include goods and services and environmental taxes. The overall tax burden equals 32.1 percent of total domestic income. Over the past three years, government spending has amounted to 40.7 percent of the country’s output (GDP), and budget surpluses have averaged 1.2 percent of GDP. Public debt is equivalent to 26.4 percent of GDP. Government Spending : 50.4 Tax Burden : 71.0 Fiscal Health : 98.6 heritage.org
  17. The former British colony of New Zealand is one of the Asia–Pacific region’s more prosperous countries. The center-right National Party, led by Prime Minister John Key, returned to power in 2008 and won reelection in 2011 and 2014. When Key resigned, his deputy, Bill English, succeeded him in late 2016. Elections in September 2017 resulted in a hung parliament, with the “kingmaker” and populist New Zealand First party subsequently forming a minority coalition, enabling new Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labor Party to return to power. Far-reaching deregulation and privatization since the 1980s have largely liberated the economy. Agriculture is important, as are manufacturing, tourism, and a strong geothermal energy resource base. The economy has been expanding since 2010. heritage.org
  18. New Zealand’s economic freedom score is 84.4, making its economy the 3rd freest in the 2019 Index. Its overall score has increased by 0.2 point, with higher scores for trade freedom and labor freedom narrowly exceeding declines in judicial effectiveness and monetary freedom. New Zealand is ranked 3rd among 43 countries in the Asia–Pacific region, and its overall score is far above the regional and world averages. A global leader in economic freedom, New Zealand has generally followed a long-term market-oriented policy framework that fosters economic resilience and growth. The new government shook business confidence in 2018 with plans for a higher minimum wage, union-friendly labor code reforms, fewer immigrant visas, a ban on housing purchases by foreigners, and higher taxes. A series of settlements after public-sector union strikes will likely push wage demands higher in the private sector. The rule of law is well maintained, and the judiciary is generally independent. heritage.org
  19. Australia - Fiscal Balance Australian government presents 2016/2017 budget, revises upwards expected fiscal deficits On 3 May, Australia Treasurer Scott Morrison presented the Federal budget to the Australian Parliament for fiscal year 2016/2017, which runs from 1 July 2016 to 30 June 2017. This is the first budget to be presented by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s administration and was announced approximately 60 days before the upcoming double-dissolution election that is scheduled to be held on 2 July. Aside from the political dimension surrounding the budget release, its actual content did not offer many surprises. Turnbull’s government has acted prudently amid sluggish economic growth in Australia, holding off on any major expenditure in order to limit deficit spending, while refocusing government expenditure on job creation and growth. In terms of fiscal forecasts, the government foresees slightly larger fiscal deficits over the next four years compared to the figures published in the Mid-Year Economic and Financial Outlook (MYEFO) released in December. The government is still expecting the budget to move into surplus in 2020/2021 as the economy is expected to gather strength, which, in turn, will bolster revenues. Small and middle sized businesses were some of the winners from this year’s budget, as they received a significant tax cut from 28.5% to 27.5%. Furthermore, more business will be able to take advantage of this tax break as the government plans on continuously expanding the middle size business bracket to larger businesses in coming years. Upper-middle income families also received a boost, as the budget raises the middle-income tax bracket to include higher earners. In terms of expenditure, the government is continuing with its AUD 50 billion infrastructure spending plan that started in 2013, however, there was a distinct absence of any new relevant infrastructure announcements and not much in the way of extra funding allocated to existing infrastructure projects. In terms of government revenues, the government is attempting to close the budget gap by cracking down on tax avoidance, establishing a new so-called “Google tax” on multinational corporations that attempt to move profits offshore as well as increasing the taxation of tobacco products. Rating agencies appeared more hesitant than usual to affirm Australia’s AAA rating after the budget was passed. In previous years, major credit rating agencies have reacted quickly to budget releases, immediately rubber stamping the country’s ‘Prime’ rating. However, this year, S&P Global Ratings hesitated to issue a rating decision, while Moody’s affirmed its Aaa rating, but issued a disclaimer noting that Australia is vulnerable to shocks to public finances which may affect its rating. Such concerns are likely due to the upward revision to Australia’s deficit in the run up to 2020/2021, along with increased government debt expectations. Analysts at the National Australia Bank point out that, although there are grounds for concern, the government’s conservative fiscal approach should keep Australia clear of a downgrade and stated: “We have previously highlighted that rising debt and successive years of Governments pushing out the date when the Budget recovers has means Australia is pushing close to the boundaries for a AAA country. Our sense is the Budget has done enough to avoid a more stringent warning from the ratings agencies but a change in rating outlook is not out of the question.” Overall the budget was associated with a mild contractionary fiscal policy, as the government attempts to rein in spending and reduce the deficit. The government expects the deficit to be 2.2% of GDP in FY 2016/2017, and to narrow to 1.0% of GDP in FY 2017/2018. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Panelists are less optimistic and see the deficit at 2.5% of GDP in calendar year 2016, and 2.1% of GDP in calendar year 2017 focus-economics.com
  20. Australia - Unemployment Employment rebounds sharply in November Seasonally-adjusted employment jumped by 39,900 in November, following a revised 24,800 job shed in October (previously reported: -19,000). November’s result beat market expectations of a 14,000 jobs addition and was driven by an increase in both full-time and part-time employment. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment inched down to 5.2% in November, reversing October’s uptick. Moreover, the seasonally-adjusted underemployment rate decreased to 8.3% in November, from 8.5% in October, while the seasonally-adjusted participation rate was stable at October’s 66.0%. FocusEconomics panelists expect the unemployment rate to average 5.2% in 2020, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and also 5.2% in 2021. focus-economics.com
  21. Australia - Public Debt Australian government presents 2016/2017 budget, revises upwards expected fiscal deficits On 3 May, Australia Treasurer Scott Morrison presented the Federal budget to the Australian Parliament for fiscal year 2016/2017, which runs from 1 July 2016 to 30 June 2017. This is the first budget to be presented by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s administration and was announced approximately 60 days before the upcoming double-dissolution election that is scheduled to be held on 2 July. Aside from the political dimension surrounding the budget release, its actual content did not offer many surprises. Turnbull’s government has acted prudently amid sluggish economic growth in Australia, holding off on any major expenditure in order to limit deficit spending, while refocusing government expenditure on job creation and growth. In terms of fiscal forecasts, the government foresees slightly larger fiscal deficits over the next four years compared to the figures published in the Mid-Year Economic and Financial Outlook (MYEFO) released in December. The government is still expecting the budget to move into surplus in 2020/2021 as the economy is expected to gather strength, which, in turn, will bolster revenues. Small and middle sized businesses were some of the winners from this year’s budget, as they received a significant tax cut from 28.5% to 27.5%. Furthermore, more business will be able to take advantage of this tax break as the government plans on continuously expanding the middle size business bracket to larger businesses in coming years. Upper-middle income families also received a boost, as the budget raises the middle-income tax bracket to include higher earners. In terms of expenditure, the government is continuing with its AUD 50 billion infrastructure spending plan that started in 2013, however, there was a distinct absence of any new relevant infrastructure announcements and not much in the way of extra funding allocated to existing infrastructure projects. In terms of government revenues, the government is attempting to close the budget gap by cracking down on tax avoidance, establishing a new so-called “Google tax” on multinational corporations that attempt to move profits offshore as well as increasing the taxation of tobacco products. Rating agencies appeared more hesitant than usual to affirm Australia’s AAA rating after the budget was passed. In previous years, major credit rating agencies have reacted quickly to budget releases, immediately rubber stamping the country’s ‘Prime’ rating. However, this year, S&P Global Ratings hesitated to issue a rating decision, while Moody’s affirmed its Aaa rating, but issued a disclaimer noting that Australia is vulnerable to shocks to public finances which may affect its rating. Such concerns are likely due to the upward revision to Australia’s deficit in the run up to 2020/2021, along with increased government debt expectations. Analysts at the National Australia Bank point out that, although there are grounds for concern, the government’s conservative fiscal approach should keep Australia clear of a downgrade and stated: “We have previously highlighted that rising debt and successive years of Governments pushing out the date when the Budget recovers has means Australia is pushing close to the boundaries for a AAA country. Our sense is the Budget has done enough to avoid a more stringent warning from the ratings agencies but a change in rating outlook is not out of the question.” Overall the budget was associated with a mild contractionary fiscal policy, as the government attempts to rein in spending and reduce the deficit. The government expects the deficit to be 2.2% of GDP in FY 2016/2017, and to narrow to 1.0% of GDP in FY 2017/2018. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Panelists are less optimistic and see the deficit at 2.5% of GDP in calendar year 2016, and 2.1% of GDP in calendar year 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Public Debt (% of GDP) 30.7 34.1 37.8 40.5 40.7 focus-economics.com
  22. Australia - Exports Goods and Services Growth disappoints in Q3, held down by weak domestic demand GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q2, following a revised 0.6% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter (previously reported: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter), according to figures released by Australia’s Statistical Institute (ABS) on 4 December. The result disappointed market analysts’ expectations of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion and underlined soft growth dynamics. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the economy grew 1.7%, marginally up from Q2’s revised 1.6% (previously reported: +1.4% year-on-year), which had marked the weakest expansion since Q3 2009. A slowdown in household spending and another contraction in fixed investment weighed on the domestic economy. Private consumption weakened (Q3: +0.1% qoq; Q2: +0.3% qoq), weighed on by a frail housing market, soft wage growth and high levels of debt. Additionally, a notable increase in the saving ratio frustrated the government’s efforts to boost spending through the introduction of tax cuts to low and middle incomes reflected in the sizable rise in disposable income. Moreover, fixed investment fell again (Q3: -0.2% qoq; Q2: -1.5% qoq), albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter, on the back of another significant drop in dwelling investment and as tumbling mining investment weighed on business investment. Meanwhile, government spending lost pace following Q2’s surge—associated with May’s general election—but remained robust nevertheless (Q3: +0.9% qoq; Q2: +2.5% qoq). The external sector, meanwhile, continued to support the economy, albeit less than in Q2. Exports rose 0.7% in Q3 (Q2: +1.3% qoq), supported by strong foreign sales of commodities, and imports dipped 0.3% in Q3, after contracting 1.1% in Q2, due to subdued domestic demand. The combination of higher exports, more favorable terms of trade and falling imports boosted Australia’s current account surplus compared to Q2, which had marked the first current account surplus since 1975. Commenting on the prospects for the Australian economy going forward, and how this will likely influence the future path of monetary policy, Andrew Ticehurst, Australia and New Zealand economist at Nomura, stated: “Growth clearly remains sub-trend, and we believe this data undermines somewhat the more upbeat narrative we heard from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday. Moreover, while the level of growth remains underwhelming, we also describe the quality of growth revealed in the national accounts as poor. We continue to see further policy easing from the RBA next year, including 25bp rate cuts in Q1 and Q2, and we continue to assign an approximate 50-60% probability to unconventional policy easing, most likely in late-2020. In turn, we retain a positive view on AUD rates, expecting them to outperform US treasuries, and we maintain our cautious medium-term view on AUD.” Growth should gather pace in 2020, underpinned by favorable financing conditions and a supportive business climate. Mining and housing investment are set to expand, which, coupled with somewhat stronger consumer spending, should prop up domestic demand. That said, a volatile external backdrop and further slowdown of the Chinese economy pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.4% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen accelerating to 2.6%. focus-economics.com
  23. Australia - Investment Growth disappoints in Q3, held down by weak domestic demand GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q2, following a revised 0.6% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter (previously reported: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter), according to figures released by Australia’s Statistical Institute (ABS) on 4 December. The result disappointed market analysts’ expectations of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion and underlined soft growth dynamics. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the economy grew 1.7%, marginally up from Q2’s revised 1.6% (previously reported: +1.4% year-on-year), which had marked the weakest expansion since Q3 2009. A slowdown in household spending and another contraction in fixed investment weighed on the domestic economy. Private consumption weakened (Q3: +0.1% qoq; Q2: +0.3% qoq), weighed on by a frail housing market, soft wage growth and high levels of debt. Additionally, a notable increase in the saving ratio frustrated the government’s efforts to boost spending through the introduction of tax cuts to low and middle incomes reflected in the sizable rise in disposable income. Moreover, fixed investment fell again (Q3: -0.2% qoq; Q2: -1.5% qoq), albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter, on the back of another significant drop in dwelling investment and as tumbling mining investment weighed on business investment. Meanwhile, government spending lost pace following Q2’s surge—associated with May’s general election—but remained robust nevertheless (Q3: +0.9% qoq; Q2: +2.5% qoq). The external sector, meanwhile, continued to support the economy, albeit less than in Q2. Exports rose 0.7% in Q3 (Q2: +1.3% qoq), supported by strong foreign sales of commodities, and imports dipped 0.3% in Q3, after contracting 1.1% in Q2, due to subdued domestic demand. The combination of higher exports, more favorable terms of trade and falling imports boosted Australia’s current account surplus compared to Q2, which had marked the first current account surplus since 1975. Commenting on the prospects for the Australian economy going forward, and how this will likely influence the future path of monetary policy, Andrew Ticehurst, Australia and New Zealand economist at Nomura, stated: “Growth clearly remains sub-trend, and we believe this data undermines somewhat the more upbeat narrative we heard from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday. Moreover, while the level of growth remains underwhelming, we also describe the quality of growth revealed in the national accounts as poor. We continue to see further policy easing from the RBA next year, including 25bp rate cuts in Q1 and Q2, and we continue to assign an approximate 50-60% probability to unconventional policy easing, most likely in late-2020. In turn, we retain a positive view on AUD rates, expecting them to outperform US treasuries, and we maintain our cautious medium-term view on AUD.” Growth should gather pace in 2020, underpinned by favorable financing conditions and a supportive business climate. Mining and housing investment are set to expand, which, coupled with somewhat stronger consumer spending, should prop up domestic demand. That said, a volatile external backdrop and further slowdown of the Chinese economy pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.4% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen accelerating to 2.6%. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Investment (annual variation in %) -1.7 -1.9 -3.6 -2.3 3.3 focus-economics.com
  24. Australia - GDP Australian gross domestic product (GDP) is the most important measure with which to evaluate the performance of Australia’s economy. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes GDP figures on an annual and quarterly basis. The table below shows the change of price-adjusted GDP for Australia, typically referred to as Australia’s economic growth rate. Overview Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the economic performance of a country over a given period, typically a year or a quarter. It is therefore the most important economic indicator to evaluate the country’s economy (see our GDP page for more information on this indicator). Australia’s GDP data (National Accounts, NA) are produced by Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) based on the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). Australian GDP Growth Performance In the ten years before the great recession, from 1999 to 2008, Australia’s GDP grew 3.4% on average per year. Economic growth decelerated to 1.6% in 2009 as a result of the global financial turmoil. Although 2009 was the worst year for the Australian economy since the recession in 1991, the economy showed great resilience to the global crisis. In fact, Australia was one of the few developed countries that recorded positive in 2009. Australia’s economic performance improved in the following years, with GDP growth averaging 2.7% from 2010 to 2013. Structure of Australian Gross Domestic Product The increase in demand for raw commodities from emerging countries since the early 2000s, which led to a strong rise in global commodity prices, has played a very important role in the dynamics of the Australian economy. Along with higher terms of trade, which sparked a substantial rise in the purchasing power of households, the rise in commodity prices caused a boom in mining investment, particularly coal and iron. Mining investment, hence, has been one of the main drivers of Australian growth during the last 10 years. The Australian economy is now in transition from the investment phase of the mining boom to the production phase. The expansion in production capacity for iron and coal has already had a strong positive effect on Australia’s exports to the Asian market. The mining sector, together with the financial sector and related professional and scientific services have markedly increased in importance in Australia’s GDP over the course of the last 10 years. In contrast, manufacturing output has seen its share steadily shrinking. As a result, around three-quarters of the economy now involves mining and the production of services rather than goods, with the financial sector replacing manufacturing as the largest single industry in the economy. When are Australian GDP Data Released? The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes GDP data on a quarterly and annual basis. Annual GDP data for Australia are released each year in November. Quarterly GDP readings are released two months after the end of the quarter, i.e. at the beginning of March, June, September and December. Quarterly GDP data are published along with a press release in which the Australian Bureau of Statistics provides an analysis of the results. The press release is available on the government website along with a calendar of the upcoming releases. How are Australian GDP Figures Computed? The Australian Bureau of Statistics calculates GDP by applying three methods: the production, the expenditure, and the income approaches. The production approach determines the value added of all producers as the difference between the value of goods and services produced (output) and intermediate consumption, adding the taxes on products (such as tobacco, mineral oil and value added tax), and subtracting the subsidies on products. The expenditure approach calculates the expenditure for the final use of goods and services, i.e. final consumption expenditure of households and government final consumption expenditure, capital formation and the balance of exports and imports (net exports). Finally, the income approach determines the income of the economy as the sum of compensation of employees, gross operating surplus, gross mixed income and taxes less subsidies on production and imports. Volume estimates are derived at the total GDP level by deflating current price estimates by the implicit price deflator from the expenditure approach. While each approach should, conceptually, produce the same estimate of GDP, if the three measures are compiled using different data sources, then different estimates of GDP result. The ABS aligns the estimates of GDP annually by balancing them in supply and use tables. Balancing in supply and use tables ensures that the same estimate of GDP is obtained from the three approaches. focus-economics.com
  25. Human Rights Commission Report 2010 The Human Rights Commission periodically releases an intensive report documenting human rights in New Zealand, mapping how they are being "promoted, protected and implemented." Of the thirty 'priority areas for action on human rights' released in the 2010 report, three were workplace and employment related. These included: Implementing a new framework for equal opportunities that addresses access to decent work for disadvantaged groups such as Maori, Pacific youth and disabled people Timetabling pay and employment-equity implementation with a minimum target of halving the gender pay gap by 2014 and eliminating it by 2020 Addressing barriers to the employment of migrant workers and ensuring the rights of temporary, seasonal and rural workers and those on work-to-residence visas are respected Māori and Pasifika rights Barriers to employment and promotion and equal employment opportunities continue to be one of the major issues facing Māori and Pacific peoples across the full range of occupations. The Ministry of Development's Social Report 2010 assessed the social and economic wellbeing of New Zealanders across a range of indicators. It found higher rates of unemployment for young people, Māori, Pacific peoples and other ethnic groups, and lower rates of median hourly earnings for the same groups as compare with Pakeha/European groups. This was in line with findings from previous years. The report also found that 14 per cent of the population live in low-income households. Since 2001, the annual Social Report, published by the Ministry of Social Development, has charted improvements in unemployment and employment rates and outcomes for Māori in socio-economic outcomes for Māori. Despite these improvements, average outcomes for Māori tend to be poorer than for the total population and the median hourly earnings, occupational spread, representation in senior roles and workplace injury claims. Despite improvements over the last decade, these gaps have widened due to the economic recession that began in late 2008. Unemployment rates in particular have risen, and are higher for Māori than for non-Māori. Māori youth unemployment rates stand as one of the highest figures of any group in New Zealand, sitting at 30.3 per cent in June 2010. Disabled rights New Zealand has ratified the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. Currently, disabled people, though being protected by a number of domestic statutes (for example the Human Rights Act and NZBORA), are considered one of the most disadvantaged groups in New Zealand when it comes to the right to work, and barriers to employment such as gaining interviews. This was reflected in figures released in 2006 showing the New Zealand labour force participation rate for disabled people was 45 per cent, compared with 77 per cent for non-disabled people. Gender rights Despite having pioneered a number of rights issues in the international sphere, in 2010 the United Nations Human Rights Committee raised concern about the low representation of women in high-level and managerial positions and on boards of private enterprises with respect to compliance with arts 2, 3 and 26 of the ICCPR ( International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights ). It was recommended the state seek ways to encourage women participation in these roles including through enhanced cooperation and dialogue with partners in the private sector. Although the part-time employment rate in New Zealand has almost doubled for men since 1986, women continue to have a higher part-time employment rate than men (23.1 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively). There was also pervasive inequality found between men and women in the sharing of power and decision-making at all levels. The current mechanisms in place were considered insufficient at all levels to address the advancement of women and the gender pay gap was criticised with average median levels of difference sitting at 10.6%. Immigrant rights Immigration in New Zealand is governed by the Immigration Act 2009. While, New Zealand generally complies with and exceeds international standards in terms of its legislation and policies where it regards race relations, barriers to employment and promotion continue to be one of the major issues facing migrants and refugees living in New Zealand. The Human Rights Commission cited that plight of migrant workers in New Zealand has received extensive mainstream media coverage on a range of issues including discrimination, exploitation and battles over work and entry visas. wikipedia.org
  26. Minimum rights and entitlements A number of rights and entitlements arise from the various employment enactments. Under New Zealand law, an employee cannot be asked to agree to less than the minimum rights and obligations as provided by the law. An employee must have a written agreement and the minimum employment rights must be met whether or not they are included in this agreement. Minimum wage The minimum wage rates apply to all employees and must be paid if a person is over 16 years of age and not a starting-out or trainee worker. The wage rates are reviewed annually by the government. As at 1 April 2019, the minimum wage is set at $17.70 for adults and $14.16 for the starting-out rate. Meal and rest breaks Employers must keep an accurate record of an employee's time worked, payments, and holiday and leave entitlements. Employees are currently entitled to: One 10-minute paid rest break when they work between two and four hours One 10-minute paid rest break and one unpaid 30-minute meal break when they work more than four and up to six hours Two 10-minute paid rest breaks and one unpaid 30-minute meal break when they work more than six and up to eight hours These requirements begin over again where the employee works more than eight hours. The legislation provides for breaks to be taken at times mutually agreed between the employer and employee. If there is no agreement, then the breaks must be evenly distributed throughout the work period. The minimum break entitlements are currently under review by Parliament. This has caused controversy in some circles in New Zealand. The New Zealand Council of Trade Unions (NZCTU) has argued the relaxation of the breaks provision places too much power in the hands of the employer and raises concerns about workplace health and safety. Holidays and leave Employees are entitled to four weeks' paid annual holiday leave at the end of each year of employment. New Zealand also has 11 annual public holidays and an employee is entitled to these days off work on pay, if they are days when the employee would normally work. Where an employee does work a public holiday, the employee must be paid at least time-and-a-half for the time worked and is also entitled to an alternative paid holiday. After 6 months of employment an employee is entitled to 5 days' sick leave on pay and paid bereavement leave. The entitlement varies from: Three days' leave on the death of a spouse/partner, parent, child, sibling, grandparent, grandchild, or spouse/partner's parent (That is, three days for each separate bereavement, even if they all occurred simultaneously.) One day if their employer accepts they have suffered a bereavement involving another person not included above. Employees may also be entitled to paid and unpaid parental leave if they meet certain criteria. This paid leave is funded by the government, not employers. wikipedia.org
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